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Small Trends Can Be BIG Biz
‘Go’ bags for survivalists, scary Korean cosmetics masks, birthday presents for pets: Cultural shifts just beginning to show themselves can be big business tomorrow
Small Trends Can Be BIG
When most people think of trends, they think of huge economic and social changes, such as the shift to cloud computing or the migration of people away from rural areas to cities. But many of the most surprising and influential developments in modern society involve smaller numbers of people, as few as 1% of the population. I call these microtrends, and they are having an outsized effect on our economy, culture and politics.
Microtrends are all around—and spotting them early can give you a clearer sense of what the future holds. Here are several unfolding now, and the potential opportunities and impacts they bring with them:
Nonagenarians
For Americans, the odds of living past 90 are going up. Today, if you reach 80, there’s a 30% chance of getting to 90. The number of nonagenarians in the U.S. has more than tripled since 1980, to 2.5 million, according to the Census Bureau, which projects that there will be 8 million in that age group by 2050.
Less smoking, more exercise and better cancer treatments account for a substantial part of this demographic shift, which is prompting efforts for more progress. Dollars are flowing into research on diseases suffered primarily in old age, such as Alzheimer’s. Home health aides are in huge and rising demand. The growing need for elder care has prompted some breakthrough ideas in robotics, and driverless cars stand to increase mobility for an expanding elderly population.
People living into their nineties will be eligible for about double the retirement benefits of those who live the average life expectancy. As the nonagenarian share of senior citizens increases, it will sharpen the debate over the retirement age. Developed nations that need to support populations this old will need some combination of longer working careers, more immigration of younger workers, and sharp jumps in labor productivity—or face severe budget crunches. At least there will be a lot more grandparents.
‘In Las Vegas, legalized marijuana has spawned cannabis tours by Luxury Limousine.’ Complete w/ Scantily clad, 420 Nurses...
Uptown Stoners
A 2016 survey of marijuana users by the branding consultant Miner & Co. Studio found that more than 80% had full-time jobs, more than 60% had household incomes of at least $75,000 and were married or living with a partner, and more than 40% were parents of children under 18. As smoking marijuana becomes legal in many parts of the country, the grunge that has long surrounded pot culture will be replaced by private clubs, spas, marijuana bars and high-end baked goods. Discriminating consumers with money will look for new ways to cut loose safely.
The weed industry is just in its infancy, about $7.2 billion in annual revenue in the U.S. as compared to over $200 billion for the liquor industry, but it is growing at 17% a year, according to the analytics firm New Frontier Data. The growth is largely fueled by a surge in recreational use, which increased by an astounding 184% just from 2014 to 2015.
The biggest profits will come from the top-earning 25% of consumers, who will increasingly seek luxury drug experiences. In Las Vegas, where recreational use became legal last July, limousine companies are offering “cannabis tours” complete with pickup from the airport. High-style products are already popping up, such as Beboe’s $25 tins of low-potency marijuana-infused pastilles, available in California dispensaries.
Arrests for marijuana purchase have dropped significantly, though Attorney General Jeff Sessions has injected new uncertainty by revoking the Obama’s administration’s no-prosecute policy in states that have legalized. Nationally, 64% of Americans are now in favor of legalizing marijuana for recreational use, according to an October Gallup poll, about double the support in 2000. The trend, and the taxes and profits that follow, appear to have unstoppable momentum.
Single with Pet
Young adults are getting married, on average, five years later than their peers of the 1970s, which roughly doubles the time they have between graduating from high school and starting families. Many are reveling in their extended freedom, but others are taking on a new responsibility: They are becoming pet owners.
Seventy percent of millennials—those born after 1980—have a pet, according to the Harris Poll. They spend more on their pets than their elders do and dote on them in other ways: They are the most likely to have pet insurance and to lavish their pets with birthday presents, according to the poll.
But their busy, work-filled lives translate into some bored cats and dogs who sit at home all day, waiting. More and more office buildings are catering to pet owners by allowing pets to come to work, something that 16% of millennials surveyed in 2015 say they do frequently or occasionally. Upscale condos are offering dog runs and in-house walking services.
This is all fodder for dog walkers, pet hotels and the overall pet industry, which already has grown to roughly $70 billion in annual revenue from just $17 billion two decades ago, according to market research by the industry. Millennials alone are estimated to spend more than $6 billion a year on pet services.
Korean Beauty
South Korea has successfully tapped into the demand for simple, clean and natural products with masks designed to create “glass skin”—an Asian ideal that American women find increasingly appealing. These beauty products went viral in early 2017 when the actress Drew Barrymore posted an image on Instagram showing her results from trying a $110 facial mask made by the cosmetics company Hanacure. The product turns your face into what looks like cracked stone, but it left Ms. Barrymore looking 10 years younger. More from Review
Korean cosmetics have become a $7.3 billion global industry, with more than $4 billion in exports, and are projected to grow 10% a year through 2020. You can find a mini-Korean beauty department in many high-end stores, including Neiman Marcus and London’s Selfridges, and Target even created its own line of products. CVS and Costco are carrying them, too.
Armchair Preppers
Americans are more worried than ever before about being prepared for sudden disasters. This used to be the province of a few who built bunkers and stocked it with survival rations, but a new, more mainstream industry is growing. Some 3.7 million Americans are investing in caches of guns, gold, protein bars and the like, up from 3 million a few years ago. They sleep better at night knowing that they are ready for the big one, whatever it might be.
The first requirement is a “go bag,” to be grabbed and put to immediate use. A New York-based startup called Preppi sells consciously stylish ones, with prices starting at $175 and topping out at $4,995. The high-end version includes night-vision goggles, a scented candle and caviar. A kid’s backpack survival kit for $275 comes stocked with “all of the necessary supplies such as food, water and first-aid items—as well as plenty of fun.” Los Angeles-based Stealth Angel offers more utilitarian packages meant to help a family survive for 72 hours for under $200.
Americans are also seeking out isolated retreats. At least two realty companies. Survivalrealty.com and United Country Real Estate in Kansas City, Mo., are selling survival plots and “off-grid” retreat homes around the U.S. and elsewhere, some specifically outfitted with two sources of water and solar energy panels. Preppers are especially buying up properties in what they call the “American Redoubt” in Idaho, Montana, Wyoming and inland areas of Washington and Oregon—as well as in New Zealand.
Behind each of these microtrends is a group of people passionate about their peculiar preferences. For businesses large and small, that’s an opportunity to satisfy new needs in the marketplace. For the rest of us, it’s a look at developments that may come to include us one day.
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