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The Futurists Top Ten Forecasts for 2015 and Beyond
@2014 The Futurist
Posted: Jan 17, 2015
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Every year, the the Futurists identify the most provocative forecasts and statements about the future that we’ve published recently and we put them to into an annual report called "Outlook." And every year, we attempt to identify the ten forecasts from that report that paint the most compelling picture of the future as it exists right now. As I recently wrote for Slate, none of these forecasts are meant to be taken as absolute.
They represent trends that are of wide relevance and futures that are becoming more likely, (without being perfectly likely.) In presenting these forecasts to you, our goal is only to provide a sense of how the future is shaping up right now. But the future, as I often say, is not a destination. It's the outcome of the decisions that we make today. With no further ado, here are the top ten forecasts for 2015 and beyond.
1. Thanks to big data, the environment around you will anticipate your every move.
The forecast: “Computerized sensing and broadcasting abilities are being incorporated into our physical environment, creating what is sometimes called an ‘Internet of things.’ Data flowing from sensor networks, RFID tags, surveillance cameras, unmanned aerial vehicles, and geo-tagged social-media posts will telegraph where we’ve been and where we are going. In the future, these data streams will be integrated into services, platforms, and programs that will provide a window into the lives, and futures, of billions of people.”
The forecast: The passenger pigeon, for example, may be brought back after 100 years. In our September–October issue, geneticist Ben Novak describes a strategy for “de-extincting” the passenger pigeon, which died out in 1914.
The project, dubbed the Great Comeback, involves five research phases:
Sequencing and analyzing pigeon genomes to understand passenger pigeon biology.
Producing cells that could be used to engineer a living passenger pigeon.
Creating the genome from synthesized passenger pigeon DNA.
Using altered cells to create breeding chimeras (combinations of rock and passenger pigeons) that would ultimately create pure passenger pigeons.
Reintroducing new passenger pigeons back into the wild.
From “The Great Comeback: Bringing a Species Back from Extinction” by Ben J. Novak.
3. By 2020 populations will shrink, and wealth will shrink with them.
The forecast: “By 2020, half of the human race will live in countries where the birthrates have fallen below the death rates, and consequently, populations are shrinking. The cause is the combination of older adults living longer and fewer children being born. The countries will grapple with shrinking tax bases and workforces despite widening pools of retirees demanding social-security and health-care payouts. Society will survive, but GDPs will fall markedly throughout the world and probably never fully rise back up."
4. Doctors will see brain diseases many years before they arise.
The forecast: “Brain scans can warn doctors if a patient will suffer Alzheimer’s, dementia, Lou Gehrig’s, or a number of other brain disorders as many as 10–15 years ahead of physical symptoms. Researchers at the Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis are learning to identify distinct chemical biomarkers within patients’ body and brain functions. Doctors could then slow the progression of the diseases if they start administering treatments years earlier.”
The forecast: “The markets for housing, automobiles, music, books, and many other products show a common trend: Younger consumers opting to rent or subscribe to pay-per-use arrangements instead of buying and owning the physical products. Shared facilities will overtake established offices, renting units will become more common than owning a home, and sales of books and music might never become popular again.” From “Consumption 2.0,” by Hugo Garcia.
6. Quantum computing could lead the way to true artificial intelligence.
The forecast: “Conventional computers cannot make decisions, as humans do, but quantum computers eventually might, says Geordie Rose, creator of the D-Wave One quantum computer. They use programs based on quantum mechanics to see multiple possible outcomes to any given problem and combine information from each to formulate solutions. With another 10 to 15 years of enhancement, they might cross the threshold to truemachine consciousness, Rose predicts.”
7. Phytoplankton death will further disrupt aquatic ecosystems.
The forecast: “The tiny marine plants are sensitive to temperature changes, so global warming poses a major threat to their populations. A Michigan State University study projects that up to 40% of the world’s phytoplankton will die out by this century’s end.”
8. The future of science is in the hands of crowdsourcing amateurs.
The forecast: So-called “citizen science,” which uses networks of volunteers in scientific research, is on its way to becoming the favored twenty-first-century model for conducting large-scale scientific research. Some of the organizations involved in citizen science include the Cornell University Ornithology Lab, the United States Rocket Academy, and NASA, among many others.
9. Fusion-fueled rockets could significantly reduce the potential time and cost of sending humans to Mars.
The forecast: “Space exploration is limited to how much fuel our vehicles can bring with them and fuel weighs too much to get us very far. That may soon change. A University of Washington team has devised a type of plasma encased in its own magnetic field. The magnetic field causes metal rings around the plasma to implode and converge to create a shell that ignites the fusion reaction.”
10. Atomically precise manufacturing will make machinery, infrastructure, and other systems more productive and less expensive.
The forecast: What the term “nanotechnology” really refers to, according to K. Eric Drexler—the father of the concept—is atom-by-atom production, which will allow for extraordinary improvements in manufacturing all things. One major benefit could be far cleaner energy, such as liquid hydrocarbon fuels produced using hydrogen from water and carbon from recycled CO2.
Futurists: Cynthia Wagner, Rick Docksai, and Keturah Hetrick contributed to this piece.
Patrick Tucker is the deputy of the Futurists. His first book, The Naked Future, will be released from Current in 2015.
We will transition to an economy of abundance, from the current economy based upon shortage (i.e. Malthusian). For instance, LENR will emerge soon, resulting in clean energy too cheap to meter. Imagine the effect on our economy as the price of energy drops dramatically, and the devices and the things accomplished with those devices considering such a low cost for energy. Soon, we will set up exponential production facilities outside of our gravity well.
As an aside...
Check out this third-party verification of a LENR reactor that will soon hit the market: http://arxiv.org/abs/1305.3913
“Given the deliberately conservative choices made in performing the measurement, we can reasonably state that the E-Cat HT is a non-conventional source of energy which lies between conventional chemical sources of energy and nuclear ones.” (i.e. about five orders of magnitude more energy dense than gasoline, and a COP of almost 6).
“LENR has the demonstrated ability to produce excess amounts of energy, cleanly, without hazardous ionizing radiation, without producing nasty waste.” - Dennis Bushnell, Chief Scientist at NASA Langley Research Center
“Total replacement of fossil fuels for everything but synthetic organic chemistry.”—Dr. Joseph M. Zawodny, NASA
In a dramatic feat of engineering prowess, the private spaceflight company SpaceX successfully landed a reusable Falcon 9 rocket booster — the second such landing for the company, and the first successful touchdown on a drone ship.
The Mars Transit Vehicle is a compact space station that will carry the astronauts from Earth orbit to Mars. It is comprised of four parts which are docked in Earth orbit: two propellant stages, a Transit Habitat and a Lander. The propellant stages are used to propel the Transit Vehicle from Earth orbit to Mars. The Transit Habitat is the home for the astronauts during their seven month journey. In it, they sleep, train and prepare for their arrival and landing. - See more at: http://www.mars-one.com/technology/mars-transit-vehicle#sthash.OVB9satf.dpuf
Roundup of Cloud Computing Forecasts and Market Estimates.
Scientists have developed a game-changing, minimally invasive brain-implant that could lead to better treatment options for people with Parkinson's disease or other neurological disorders, and even to brain enhancement for healthy people.
We found out scientists in China edited the genome of human embryos for the first time in history (which may one day be on lists of either the biggest discoveries or biggest mistakes in the 21st century).
Meanwhile, in the United Kingdom, lawmakers voted to allow couples with certain genetic disorders to have a procedure done that would create children with three biological parents.
Scientist Hashem AL-ghaili pulled together 30 of the most exciting and potentially groundbreaking pieces of scientific work of 2015 so far in an infographic for Futurism.com with help from the Reddit channel Futurology.
2015 is over, but already we've seen some breathtaking scientific discoveries, advancements, and policy decisions follow thrus in 2016 and there's more to come. See more -
Discover more by clicking through Futurism's interactive version got so far into 2016 and beyond!
The the potentials and possibilities are literally endless...
There are 150 million, blogs with the thousands upon thousands of other blogs running WordPress, it's popularity is undeniable. Blogger is next on the hit parade.
Give wp a test drive yourself by signing up for a free hosted blog at WordPress.com or take the plunge and host it yourself. Take advantage of the variety of free tools and resources associated with this popular open source blogging software. Happy blogging!
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